This is Year 4 of Salt Lake City Baseball, where we take the small budget Salt Lake City Alpines of the United Baseball Association and help them become a perennial playoff contender - with house rules stacking the odds against us. submitted by onemanfivetools to OOTP [link] [comments] 1957 RecapHere's full write-up's of previous seasons: 1955, 1956, 1957We finished 1957 with a 68-94, improving over the previous year by 5 wins. I made a big trade, giving up a power-hitting #1 overall pick that was making his way through my system for a starting pitcher with an injury history. A risk? You bet. But it's the kind of bet that I think will work in our favor, in the grand scheme of things. I'm excited - I think we have a chance to get to .500 this year. We'll see if I eat my words by the end of this post. The OffseasonFirst things first - let's see what we're allowed to do this year. We use our RNG and get the following results:50+ Free Agents allowed: 4 Trades allowed: 1 Oof. As I've mentioned, trades are much more valuable to pick typically, so having one to work with could be tough, but we'll deal with it. We're immediately tasked with making decisions, something we've pretty much avoided to this point. In the expansion draft we took so many young players that the only thing I've really needed to do is non-tender a few terrible arbitration guys. In fact, I've typically had just three or four arbitration-eligible players to get through. This year, we have eleven. We also have three players with team options, as well as CF Jesus Silva, who declined his player option after a 4 WAR season and is now a free agent. Assuming we sign our arbitration class, and pick up all of our team options, and keep our player development, scouting, draft, and IFA budgets the same, we have a paltry $300K in budget room left. So let's get to work. We have team options on RP Jayden Ziegler for $1.6M, SP Jose Chavez for $1.5M, and 1B Juan Sera for $5.25M. Minimum buyout in this league is 25%, so assume the buyout is exactly that. Ziegler is the first one to get picked up - he was a guy we targeted to move to the pen exclusively and thought his skillset would work for our club, which it absolutely did, improving his ERA from 5.12 two years ago in Philadelphia to 3.26 here, and his 2.53 FIP tells me he could be even better. Chavez was another guy with a 5+ ERA we thought would improve coming here - he did, but not to the same extent, finishing with a 4.84 ERA in 23 starts. His strikeout rate dropped a hair, while his walk rate went up. Still, $1.5M isn't a ton, and I don't have a ton of pitching depth to fill his spot if he leaves, so we accept his option as well. Sera is a bit more interesting because with such a low budget right now, that $3.75 million could help. He was very, very good for us, with a wRC+ of 153 - a whopping 193 against LHP which was where he was typically slotted when the lineup was at full strength. 1B Shane Ennis, our 1B against RHP, was decent in that role (107 wRC+) but completely sucked when facing same-handed pitching (45 wRC+). Now that I'm looking at it though, maybe Sera should be our full-time 1B - he's a much better defender there and can also play 2B in a pinch. I decide to pick up his option - we can always trade him if needed, though I need to keep in mind I can only make one trade all season. In terms of free agents, RP Sal Sosa finishes his two-year deal with us with fifty total saves, and this last season he had a FIP of 2.89. He wants about $8M a year for three years, so it's rich for our blood, so he'll walk and take his talents elsewhere. CF Jesus Silva, who I made a deal for prior to last season, contributed very nicely for us, leading the league in doubles with 47 and a 104 wRC+. But he struck out a career high 22.1% of the time, and had a BABIP higher than his career average. He wants over $10M, so he won't be back, but he won't discuss a deal with me, meaning I'm not sure if offering him arbitration makes sense. Him accepting a $17.5M deal would destroy us financially and I'm not sure I'd be able to trade him with that big of a contract without eating some of it. It's a risk I'm not willing to take, so he'll walk as well. Okay - let's dig into some of the arbitration decisions. As mentioned, there's eleven guys here, but just two of them have four years of service time - none with five or six, but a bunch with two or three. So most of these guys are cheap. Nine of the eleven players want less than $1.25M. 3B Ricky Rojas is not one of those guys - he's a super-two player who wants $4.6M after finishing with 1.7 WAR. He crushed LHP with a 154 wRC+, but struggled against RHP at just 85. In 611 PA's he struck out just 42 times. I like that - but his defense was less impressive with -6 ZR at the hot corner. 2B Seth Glisson is a 31 year old who's asking for around $2.2M in his first arbitration year. He has started to fully take advantage of his speed, stealing 52 bases and getting caught just 6 times. He's had a weird career, his BABIP wildly swinging from .408 to .257 and then .342 last year. The 3.7 WAR makes this decision easy - he's helping us win games with his speed alone and while his defense isn't great, if he can keep his BABIP from swinging wildly back down we'll have a solid player on our hands. Since everyone else is relatively cheap and somewhat inconsequential, I use this opportunity to trade Rojas and get some money off the books - I can use that money to find someone who doesn't have such big splits and is maybe a better defender. Rojas has decent value to teams, with some interesting guys available, but I settle on a deal with Montreal with RP Dan DeKing, a RHP with a fastball/slider combo that leads to high stuff, posting 11+ K/9 in the minors. RP Dan DeKing OSA likes him even more, rating his stuff as an 8. More pitching depth is always good, and a guy like this could be part of a cheap, effective pen in the future. He'll go to AA to start his time with the Alpines. 1B Shane Ennis is only looking for $1M, but I'm going to let the right-handed 1B Juan Sera take that spot full-time. I have another left-handed 1B in AAA, so if I feel like a platoon is necessary I have an option. But Sera was better against same-handed pitching than Ennis was against his opposite - so this makes sense to me. Ennis was a solid player but doesn't really have a place on my team. He gets non-tendered. We wrap up by offering everyone else a one-year deal, though we have to go to court with two guys who don't want to negotiate. We learn that C Kevin Carson has won his second consecutive gold glove. We unsurprisingly don't get a single vote for any other awards. Before we head into free agency, here's a quick look at our farm system. Salt Lake City Alpines Prospect Pipeline We have a core of guys now at A ball, so our plan is to shoot for 1960 as the opening to our main window of contention. Targeting college players closer to major-league ready could be a better option now, but we'll still focus mainly on taking the best player available. Free AgencyOur two biggest areas of need are on the left side of the infield, but we could always use another arm in the pen. I would love a switch-hitter at one of those spots, but if not, a RHB is preferred. In the pen, either handedness would work for me.I make a shortlist of four pitchers and four bats - I'll need two of the hitters. I'm looking for contact ability, defensive ability, and someone who's affordable, which means we're probably looking for someone we can get more out of, or someone who looks like they can bounce back from a bad year. On the arm side, it's the same cheap reclamation stuff we've been doing - RP Jayden Ziegler was a success here, going from a 5.12 ERA with his previous team to a 3.26 with us last year - but also a focus on strikeouts. Our defense is not quite where we want it to be - we finished with a -22 ZR as a team last season - so a focus on missing bats is going to be key. I have about $10M to spend. I'm comfortable spending all of it, and luckily our RNG roll earlier will allow us to sign up to four 50+ rated guys. But we will still have to do our 2-8 roll each week and roll as high as the player we're offering (e.g. to offer a guy who's a 55, we need to roll a 6 or higher) and can only make one offer per week. We get to our first roll, and we get a 6. RP Juan Camacho is who we really want as our arm, but he's a 65, so we'll have to wait. The high BABIP last year and K/9 make me think he's great but could do even better. Free Agent RP Juan Camacho We will make an offer, however, to SS Rich Reynaga, who spent 1957 with the St. Louis Lions. While there's a few 3B options, this is the only true shortstop on our shortlist so while we have the chance, we need to make our offer now. He had 480 PA's with the Lions last year, hit 10 HR's, and finished with a +2.9 ZR at shortstop. He's got a canon for an arm and great range. He'll be 34, but we're okay with him on a short-term deal. We offer him $2.5 with a second-year team option. Free Agent SS Rich Reynaga The following week comes, and this time we roll a 5. All of our 3B targets are eligible, and I'm having a tough time deciding on who to go with. Manny Avila is super intriguing to me with his speed, but he spent all year in AAA in '57 and the lack of eye and power isn't good. The other two guys are switch-hitters, which would work out nicely in my lineup, but Jaylin Burnett has the same issue as Avila with the bat. Mike Gremillion is the better hitter overall, but no speed hurts and his defense isn't great. Our 3B targets. I dig a little deeper, and look at splits - Avila and Gremillion are definitely better against LHP, while Burnett has a pretty clear split favoring him against RHP. This leads me to find that we had a .562 winning percentage when facing LHP last year, but .385 against RHP. We clearly faced many more RHP, but that's just another reason to lean towards Burnett. Even if he can't hit lefties, he's utilizing his strength about 80% of the time. Jaylin Burnett gets an offer, a $3M deal with two team options with $750K buyouts. He's not trained at third yet, but we'll get him time there in spring ball and his ratings suggest he should have no issue there. Free Agent IF Jaylin Burnett We get some luck when the following week rolls around, we learn that RP Juan Camacho (shown and discussed a paragraphs above) has signed with Montreal - here's a great example of why I like my house rules. I would have offered this guy immediately, and almost certainly got him, but I lose my chance to sign my top relief target and now I'm forced to go back to my shortlist and go with a lesser option. I end up reaching out to southpaw RP Sal Sosa, who spent his last two years with us. We know how he works in our park, and his FIP was nearly a run lower than his ERA so maybe we can squeeze a little more out of him as well. He gets a $4M offer with a $5M team option for the following year. The Rule-5 Draft comes around, and we have a few open spots on our 40-man. We have a house rule that anyone in the Rule-5 has to be 26 years of age or older, AND we have to do our 2-8 roll and end up higher than his rating. We end up taking SP Ryan Thompson, a LHP from the Boston Yanks organization. He's got a good pitch mix and has had success in the minors, but it's a low-risk move a team like ours can make. Rule-5 selection SP Ryan Thompson We continue on, and SS Rich Reynaga signs with us, filling a big need. RP Sal Sosa rejoins the club as well, solidifying our pen, and a few days later 3B Jaylin Burnett puts pen to paper. We've used three of our four available free agent signings, and have $2M left to spend. I get to pre-season, and one of my targets 2B Manny Avila is available on a one-year deal for $1.5M, so we roll to see if we're eligible to offer and we are - he signs a few days later and he becomes our starting 2B against LHP. Opening DayWe finish the spring 11-19 with no major injuries, and we're set to play the Chicago Packers, our division-winning rivals, on opening day. We played through this one, and it was a rough start - our SP Juan Chavez went out with an injury, our new SS Rich Reynaga will be out for five weeks after getting hit by a pitch in the foot, and then a reliever also had to come out with an injury. We gave up 4 tuns in the 3rd, and then blew a bases loaded opportunity in the 8th. But in the 9th inning, our late offseason signing 2B Manny Avila came through with a game winning single after 2B Seth Glisson stole a bag. Our speed really caused some trouble in this one, and we take opening day 5-4.Opening Day, April 7th, 1958 - Chicago Packers (4) at Salt Lake City Alpines (5) While our big deadline trade last year SP Rob White had a terrible spring training, we were looking forward to his first start, which he made against the San Francisco Peanuts. He went five strong innings, striking out eight while giving up no runs and only two hits. We start strong, going 5-2 to start the year, but by the end of April we fall to 9-13 - injuries have hurt us, with SS Rich Reynaga out for the first month, as well as 1B Juan Sera, and SP Juan Chavez. On May 10th, all three are back, and we look to really get things going in the second half of May. Scratch that - four days later, Reynaga and Sera are hurt AGAIN. Sera has to go to the DL, but we let Reynaga play through it. On the 17th, new 3B Jaylin Burnett, who's got a .333 OBP, goes down for a month. Ugh. We finish the month 20-28, The DraftBefore I get into the draft, let's revisit the trade I made at last year's deadline:There is one avenue I explore - the Baltimore Atlantics have already traded OF Matt Storms, all-time home run king, and are selling. They have SP Rob White, 26, who looks like a great young starting pitcher who would fit in really well here. This is an opportunity to grab someone that I would not be able to get in free agency. Obviously, they want a lot - they ask for our former #1 overall pick OF Rich Schaffer.Eleven months later, and I worry that I didn't make the right move. White's ratings still look great - but he's struggling. Despite a 2.79 FIP, he's got an ERA of 5.05. Last year, he under-perfomed his FIP by more than two runs as well. His BABIP is high right now at .373, so it's probably bad luck. But I need the bad luck to turn around. Schaffer looks even more like a stud now: OF Rich Schaffer His potentials are bumping, and I probably did not make the right move here. We'll see, but if White doesn't turn things around I'm going to be kicking myself. I cry even more thinking about how I could have sent over 50-rated screwballer with a shortstop I forget the name of to get White, but was too intrigued by the screwballer to do it. Let's turn to the draft - entering the day we're 20-32. We've dropped to the 5th pick two years in a row, and this year we're at the #5 spot before the lottery, so maybe our fortunes will reverse. There will be 10 picks in the hopper - Pittsburgh is at #1, followed by Oakland, San Diego, Baltimore, and then us. Let's do it. We get to pick 7 without much movement yet, but once we're there, Oakland pops up, dropping from #2 to #7, and then San Diego from #3 to #6. So we'll at least stay at #5, but we're hoping for better. Nope. No luck, as we pick 5th again, for the third year in a row. Milwaukee is the lucky team this year, moving up from #8 to the 1st overall pick. There's two guys I REALLY like, and another guy I like who would probably have to play 1B which makes him less exciting, but his bat should be incredible. SS Joaquin Garcia, projected to go #1 to Milwaukee 2B (more realistically 1B) John Soria, projected to go #2 to Pittsburgh SP Victor Sanchez, projected to go #3 to Baltimore I like these three guys and would be happy with any of them, but I'd prefer a bat. If Sanchez is there, I'll take him, but if not, I'd be looking at one of these three guys: 3B Chris Jones, projected to go #4 to Detroit SP Chris Gleason, projected to go #5 to Salt Lake City LF Aaron Altenbach, projected to go #7 to Oaklad I'll get one of these guys, obviously. But as of right now, I think my plan is I'd take whoever is left of Garcia, Soria, or Sanchez. If all of them are gone, I'd go to Gleasson, then Jones, then Altenbach. A wild card is CF Chris Burke, who isn't projected to go until #14, but he's a much better defender than Altenbach but less power. Milwaukee kicks things off by going with SS Joaquin Garcia, and Pittsburgh follows the board with 1B/2B John Soria, as does Baltimore with SP Victor Sanchez. Detroit takes SP Chris Gleason, so now I'm between the three hitters I've discussed. The defense of Jones and Altenbach bother me, of course, but Jones to a lesser extent. I make the decision to go with 3B Chris Jones - OSA is obesessed with him, which pushed me a little more in his favor, and I just can't play a BAD defender in my outfield, so Altenbach would have been in a tough spot. We get through June and it's ugly - we're 25-52. International Signing PeriodWe have $7.5M allocated for this period, but anything over $6M will get taxed at 100% and make me have to skip next year, so I'm always hesitant to go beyond that number unless there's an absolutely monster - this year is another year where the best player is rated as a 50 potential, but we do end up spending our whole amount to bing in two players. CF Javier Dominguez, 17, is a contact-focused LHB, and 3B Baldassare Jauregui comes in just for the amazing name. He's a 16-year-old Venezuelan, also contacted focused, but bats right and has good speed.We'll be limited to $500K next year, but realistically we're not going to afford the top players anyway. This year, two players went for over $20M, $14M of which was taxed at 100%. We're not that rich. All-Star BreakWe head into the break at a very disappointing 29-59, and it's time to dive in a little deeper into our runs scored/runs allowed compared to last year.1957: 3.7 runs scored per game, 4.4 runs allowed per game. 1958: 3.7 runs scored per game, 5.0 runs allowed per game. Yea - this doesn't surprise me, as every time I look at our pitching staff we have four of our five guys over a 5 ERA. SP Rob White is also out with chronic back soreness - we don't know when he will be back, and even when he is, he's severely underperforming what we think he could do. RP Sal Sosa is also underperforming with an ERA over 6. Our FIP, however, isn't terrible, with no one over 5. It makes me think that our defense is what's holding us back. With no trades available, we continue on through the trade deadline, finishing July with a disappointing 34-67 record, and any help we can is going to have to come from inside. While most of our prospects are in single-A, we do have two relievers in AA who we promote to AAA - we're going to need their help sooner than later. End of SeasonWithout much more we can do, we power through the rest of the season. There's positive news, as we finish September 14-13, and go 4-1 to finish things in October, bringing our final record to 61-101.1958 Federal League Standings While Georgia and New Orleans head into the post-season from the Federal League, the Columbia League's Philadelphia Patriots and Kansas Grays will play in their League Championship Series. Both the Patriots and Peaches move on, and the 1958 World Series goes to Game 7, and it's a wild one. The Patriots led 3-2 going into the top of the 9th, and the Peaches pounced on SP Ryan Oliver, a starter who came out of the pen in the 8th and was tasked with closing the series out in the 9th, giving up three runs. They wouldn't score in the bottom of the inning, and the Georgia Peaches are your 1958 World Series Champions. After improving year over year since 1955, it's a bummer getting back to a 100-loss season. We did start to turn things around at the end, and I do think there was definitely some bad luck involved - between the injuries and the overall underperformance of our FIP by our pitchers. 1958 End of Season Team Stats Our June record of 4-24 truly killed us. A .400 winning percentage that month would have netted us seven more wins, which would have made the season a bit more respectable. We'll take a look more at our individual performances in our 1959 recap - so until then, I'm happy to answer any questions, and thanks for reading! See you next season. |
submitted by 1PercentMax to thetagang [link] [comments] Gain Porn Super happy that I finally squeezed that last bit of theta off this a.m. to lock in that thetabanging five bagger!!! Holding all cash atm to take a breather and wait for the next set of opportunities to show; definitely expecting more volatility to come in within the next week or so. Positions closed this morning (so I don’t get banned for not posting positions):
Planning on doing a full writeup of my experience/strategy later if and when I procrastinate on my studies again. Happy thetaganging! EDIT: Here's my recipe for tendies! Full Writeup First off, a little bit of background and introduction. I’m Max (not my real name), and I’m currently pursuing an advanced degree in data science while also working part-time to pay down my student debt. For years I have lurked and enjoyed basking in the wonderful content the Reddit community has to offer. In fact, I am actually ashamed by the lack of posting on my account, but it’s high time I give back with a detailed writeup of my process to growing my Robinhood portfolio. Strap in and get comfortable, because this one’s a long read! Full disclosure: RH was not my first brokerage account, and 2020 was not my first rodeo in trading options – I have a primary brokerage that I have been trading with for almost ten years now, and yes, I’ve paid my tuition in the form of both time in self-education and money in account losses long before deciding to plop my savings into RH. I’m going to preface my writeup by saying that the key ingredients required in making a profitable portfolio are, in unequal parts, a healthy mindset, a trading methodology, patience, and last but not least, luck. I’m still trying to peg a % to each ingredient, still haven’t arrived at a conclusive answer unfortunately. Healthy Mindset NGL, this to me is the absolute most important ingredient on the list. As the saying goes, you may have graduated from school, but you still got a ton of learning to do. This means maintaining an open mind and attitude towards learning new things and hearing other people’s opinions (something a lot of people in this world could use!) I used to think I was the bomb when some of my naked call purchases gave me instant 200% returns, but I quickly learned that buying FDs is unsustainable in the long run. One of the earliest things I also noticed when trading options is that it requires one to process information and execute a set of procedures, which is why attaining peak mental and physical health reduces any margin for error. Early in my trading days, there were times when due to the lack of sleep, I selected the wrong expiration date to my options, which resulted in a panic to correct the mis-action and also execute a “day trade” when I did not mean to. My approach: if I’m not at the right place, at the right time, in the right state of mind, I will not execute any trades. I also learned that there is absolutely zero room for emotion in this business – the best trades are executed when information is processed objectively, and decisions made swiftly. When emotions are introduced, our actions are easily skewed by human nature. Some common things you’ll hear are chasing after losses or revenge trading, which is a surefire way to blow up your account quickly. Which brings us to dealing with FOMOs – it’s an unhealthy emotion. Simply ask the people who are bagholding whatever asset they bought at the peak. We need to understand time only travels in one direction, and to prosper we should make our best decisions based on all available information at that point in time. GME and AMC were easily opportunities to FOMO into, but by the time I truly understood what was going on, RH had already placed restrictions on buying, which meant a suppression of demand and potentially cause mispricing and a rush for exit. Time moved on, and so did I – I still cured my FOMO, by selling spreads on both tickers as it came down, and still made away with profits! On a related note: dealing with YOLOs: please understand what survivorship bias is – for every 1 Redditor who made a massive gains post, there are probably 99 others who blew up their accounts using the same approach and strategy. Putting all your eggs in one lottery ticket is not smart – chances are, you will go broke. In the long run, you’re better off diversifying and executing trades in different baskets to minimize risk and maximize gain. Finally, like conquering the path to the top of Everest, it’s important to set small, attainable goals along the way. When I first started out, I risked only a small % of my total portfolio with any new strategy, and then gave it time. If and when the strategy is successful, I scale up and then move on to the next small, attainable goal of trying beating SPY’s monthly performance, after fees and taxes of course. Consistent and sustainable gains are hard to attain, but the task becomes easier the more you do it everyday! Trading Methodology If you skipped everything above, you’re missing out, big time! Having a healthy mindset is big piece of the puzzle to attaining consistent and sustainable portfolio gains! Anyway, we must first understand that trading is a game of supply and demand, and should be treated as a business; we trade because there is demand for an asset, and because there are profits to be made from supplying said asset. I did this early on without even realizing that it’s theta-ganging, and before reading a book about the One-Man-Insurance-Company (OMIC), but the strategy of trading credit spreads is essentially the business of selling insurance policies to the people who need it, and collecting a premium until the policy term expires, whether naturally or artificially. And how do we build a profitable insurance business? By spending a ton of money on clever and funny ads about 15 minutes and 15 percent. JK LOL! If only theta-ganging works that way. Though, who knows, you might find extra 15 percent gains after spending 15 minutes in thetagang! Like trading, the secret to theta-ganging is looking at things from two key perspectives: fundamental (FA) and technical (TA), both of which will drive supply and demand for the options we sell. We can easily go down and get lost in rabbit holes with each perspective, as the level of knowledge on these are vast and deep. But here’s what I look for when selling spreads: where (which tickers and strikes) and when (which expiration and policy start date) should I sell insurance policies on? Let’s take a little detour: I believe in market efficiency, in the sense that everything is priced in, at a given point in time. What this means is that when you pull up the price of a certain stock or option, it’s priced correctly at that point in time. However, when time moves forward, new information becomes available, and that’s when price starts to move. From a fundamental perspective, new information will reprice the stock and move it towards its intrinsic value, while from a technical perspective (imo: a self-fulfilling prophecy), all players in the market will trade around and potentially keep a stock within a range. Clearly, I’m oversimplifying both perspectives; there’s a reason why there are financial professionals with years of education, certification and/or experience who do this for a living, so please don’t roast me for this. But like solving a good puzzle, you can’t just make do with one piece and throw out all the others – everything needs to be pieced together to give you a clear picture on the final solution. This is my starting point, so allow me to use GME as an example. As obsolete as the brick-and-mortar video game business is, there’s an intrinsic value for the company and its stock, since there’s new company leadership and strategy along with a restructuring of the company’s finances, not to mention mass speculation buying from the social movement by WSB. If you ask me, FA would put GME in the range of $20-35 (assuming business as usual and post-covid recovery), while TA would peg GME above $50. Both perspectives considered, I would place a smart bet that GME would remain, at the very least, above $40 in the short term, hence my decision to sell a spread with a floor of $40, expiring 2/12. Regardless, know that the game with pricing in FA and TA is opportunistic in nature, meaning that there’s a component of keeping your ear to the ground to listen for the latest developments in the markets. Now let’s talk about everyone’s favorite part: execution. Now, what I’m listing here are absolutely methodical, meaning that for every opportunity that arises, I will go through my decision tree to find the perfect pair (of options) that fit the following criteria before I open a trade:
The last and most crucial topic under trading methodology is something I’ve seen asked in many subs on Reddit multiple times: how do I pick a stock/underlying to trade on? Everyone has different methods, and this is where one can easily gain an edge in trading, and yes, I believe I have my own edge. This topic on its own deserves its own writeup; something for another day, for now I will just say that the information is out there if you go and look for it. BUT, I would caution everyone by saying that you have to be careful with the information you procure, as the data can easily signal false positives. Not sharing any data sources, sorry, not sorry; unless these companies are sponsoring a portion of my student debts, I will not be advertising any names or links. Patience Having FOMO? Fear not! As time moves forward, patience is a key part of this game in waiting for an opportunity to reveal itself before you can pounce! Now I will say that it is not everyday that I find an opportunity to sell credit spreads on, as this is dependent on events happening around the world (e.g. earnings or economic announcements). But what I can tell you is that I always have ample buying power ready (I’m holding all cash as I’m typing this) for when opportunities arise. The worst thing to do as a theta-ganger is to randomly open spreads at any point in time with no rhyme or reason – you’ll regret it if volatility suddenly expands! Luck Yes, it carries some weight, thankfully it’s not 100%, but unfortunately neither is it 0%. What we do know for sure is that there are things out of our control in life. For example: gravity, the weather, and the President of Russia. (LOL.) Thankfully, there are things that we can control! No, literally! You can change your luck depending on the choices you make! For example, if you don’t vote, you potentially give the opposing candidate an increased chance of winning the election. Just know that every step you decide to take in life carries some level of probability with it, and as it relates to trading, you should try and make the moves where your portfolio ends up with a net positive expected value! Summary So there they are, my secret recipe with all the key ingredients required to make delicious tendies with your own portfolio! Praying that my time put into this lengthy and detailed writeup will bring you prosperity in the future, and that it repays my debts to Reddit of not posting enough! Heads up, I also secured a subreddit under the same name as my account: 1PercentMax to share all my thoughts and opinions in one easy to access place, where I will re-edit this writeup with more context and detail on each line item above for sharing with non-theta-gang Redditors. Thanks for reading! TL;DR Sorry, there’s a reason why profits don’t come easy. You’re gonna have to take your time and read if you want them gains! |
To do this, the establishment will issue IRS Form W-2G, Certain Gambling Winnings. According to the form’s instructions, the payer of gambling winnings must issue this form to you if you receive: How Casino Winnings Are Taxed. As stated earlier, the federal government levy tax on both cash and non-cash winnings. Returns gotten from wagers placed on bingo, keno, lottery, raffles, sweepstakes and slots including non-cash winnings like trips and vehicles are taxable. It is the Fair Market Value (FMV) of non-cash winnings that are taxed. Let me give the example of the country I live one. You bet a -110 odd. lets say you bet 110 to win 100 If you lose the sportsbook will keep the extra $10 for them that is their juice. If you receive your winnings through PayPal, the reporting form may be a 1099-K. The 1099 tax forms report your winnings to the taxing authorities and also gives you notice of the amount you must report on your taxes. Even if you don't receive a 1099 form, you must still report the net profits on your federal and state income tax returns. If you win big while gambling in Las Vegas or Reno, you do not get to keep every penny, alas. Gambling winnings are taxable, and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) wants its share of your casino loot. For many of us, gambling means buying the occasional lottery ticket on the way home from work, but the Internal Revenue Service says that casual gambling also includes raffles, casino games, poker, sports betting—and, yes, even fantasy football. When you win, your winnings are taxable income, subject to its own tax rules. Of course, Gambling winnings are also taxed. You must report game show winnings, and you will receive an IRS Form 1099--just in case you forget to put your win on your tax return. The IRS doesn’t mention sports betting on its website, but these do count as gambling winnings. Any cash winnings or prizes (such as vehicles or vacations) also count, assessed at their “fair market value.” When it comes to pure winnings from betting, however, that quite simply is not the case. As we have discussed above these winnings are not taxable and this remains true even for a ‘professional gambler’. That is because HMRC do not recognise professional gambling as a taxable trade. If your losses exceed your winnings, the amount you deduct cannot exceed the total amount of your winnings. Keep records of the gambling losses you claim on your tax return. You can do this by keeping a gambling log or hanging onto losing bet tickets, lottery tickets, and bingo cards. Don’t worry about knowing these tax rules.
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